A recent article in The
Economist pointed out that the world needs to produce more food in the next
40 years than they did in the previous 10,000 years put together. Such soaring rhetoric suggests this will be a
difficult task given the other constraints that exist in modern
agriculture. These often cited obstacles
include a reduction in available arable land, increasing demand for biofuels,
aging farmers in developed countries, a rapidly changing climate – the list is
seemingly endless.
Concerns about the world not being able to feed itself have
been around since English economist Thomas Malthus postulated in 1798 that the
world faced a famine due to expanding population. At the time of writing his theory, world
population was less than one billion.
With world population now exceeding seven billion and food production
continuing to increase, a global famine is still nowhere in sight. Indeed in real (inflation adjusted) terms,
food prices continue to decline.
There is no doubt that hunger exists in the world but it is
rarely due to a lack of food production.
The presence of people going without in affluent countries is testament
to that.
Despite the discrediting of Malthus theory many times over,
it still generates plenty of support.
The reality is that the world’s farmers will have little problem feeding
the world’s expanding population provided Governments have appropriate policy
settings. The sort of policy settings
that will facilitate adequate food production include:
- · Eliminating wasteful subsidies which encourages inefficient production.
- · Building infrastructure to facilitate distribution of production.
- · Reducing barriers to trade around the world.
- · Targeting aid to boost local production capabilities rather than dumping surplus production from developed countries.
- · Investing in research and development especially where there is a “public good” element to the research such as biological controls of pests and diseases.
- · Encourage investment in the sector across national boundaries.
The Economist
article mentions that technology adoption can significantly increase yields on
farms citing examples of “big data” in cropping operations and robotics on
dairy farms. Technologies such as these
in addition to a whole host of other productivity improvements should ensure the
world continues to avoid a Malthusian catastrophe.
FURTHER READING
Investing in Agriculture.
Barbarians at the farm gate. The Economist, January 3rd 2015.
